Profitable and expedient counterfactual logic

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Counter-factual reasoning, or logic, is reasoning that is "counter to fact" and is one of the basic ways in which humans reason and is part of the field called "casual reasoning". This reasoning is often done after-the-fact in the sense of a "Monday morning quarterback".

Famous computer scientist Judea Pearl has pointed out that God never deals in counterfactual logic. What is the first instance of counterfactual logic being used in the Bible? (provided by Judea Pearl in one of his books).

More: Judea Pearl

Counter-factual reasoning, or logic, is reasoning that is "counter to fact" and is one of the basic ways in which humans reason and is part of the field called "casual reasoning".

"What would have happened if ...".
"If only I had done something else ..."

Human beings tend to reason using counter-factual (counter to fact, or what if) logic, as pointed out by famous computer scientist Judea Pearl.

Second guessing oneself is a form of self reference, albeit using counter-factual logic (counter to the fact of what happened).

Indecision is a form of self reference, the mind thinking about decisions, sometimes ad infinitum.

Causal reasoning has to do with determining what causes what.

Judea Pearl (Israeli-American computer scientist and philosopher) has done important work in the field of computer science in the areas of casual reasoning.

Judea Pearl was the winner of the 2011 ACM Turing Award for "For fundamental contributions to artificial intelligence through the development of a calculus for probabilistic and causal reasoning ".
Judea Pearl is the father of journalist Daniel Pearl, who was kidnapped and murdered by terrorists in Pakistan connected with Al-Qaeda and the International Islamic Front in 2002 for his American and Jewish heritage. Wikipedia (as of 2023-03-25)

More: Converse fallacy: If A then B does not mean If B then A

More: Judea Pearl

The following has been noticed.

A lot of accidents at an intersection.
A speed camera installed.
Accidents at that intersection go down.
Claim than speed camera installation caused intersection to be more safe.

Is this a causal relationship? Did the speed camera cause the accidents to decrease?

What are other reasons why accidents might have gone down at this intersection?

For causation, the following argument is often used.

If the speed camera had not been installed, the accident rate at that intersection would not have gone down.

How do we know what might have happened if the speed camera were not installed?

Judea Pearl cites the first instance of counterfactual logic in the Bible as Abraham asking God not to destroy Sodom and Gomorrah if 50, then 20, then 10 righteous can be found. That is, if they exist.

Genesis 18:20 provides the reason for God wanting to destroy Sodom and Gomorrah.

Genesis 18:20

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KJV: And the LORD said, Because the cry of Sodom and Gomorrah is great, and because their sin is very grievous;

Hebrew: ויאמר יהוה זעקת סדם ועמרה כי רבה וחטאתם כי כבדה מאד׃

Greek: ειπεν δε κυριος κραυγη σοδομων και γομορρας πεπληθυνται και αι αμαρτιαι αυτων μεγαλαι σφοδρα

A few verses later, Abraham ask God the following.

Genesis 18:23

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KJV: And Abraham drew near, and said, Wilt thou also destroy the righteous with the wicked?

Hebrew: ויגש אברהם ויאמר האף תספה צדיק עם רשע׃

Greek: και εγγισας αβρααμ ειπεν μη συναπολεσης δικαιον μετα ασεβους και εσται ο δικαιος ως ο ασεβης

Genesis 18:24

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KJV: Peradventure there be fifty righteous within the city: wilt thou also destroy and not spare the place for the fifty righteous that are therein?

Hebrew: אולי יש חמשים צדיקם בתוך העיר האף תספה ולא תשא למקום למען חמשים הצדיקם אשר בקרבה׃

Greek: εαν ωσιν πεντηκοντα δικαιοι εν τη πολει απολεις αυτους ουκ ανησεις παντα τον τοπον ενεκεν των πεντηκοντα δικαιων εαν ωσιν εν αυτη

2 Peter 2:20

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KJV: For if after they have escaped the pollutions of the world through the knowledge of the Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ, they are again entangled therein, and overcome, the latter end is worse with them than the beginning.

Greek: ει γαρ αποφυγοντες τα μιασματα του κοσμου εν επιγνωσει του κυριου και σωτηρος ιησου χριστου τουτοις δε παλιν εμπλακεντες ηττωνται γεγονεν αυτοις τα εσχατα χειρονα των πρωτων

Counter-factual logic is logic that is "counter to fact" and is one of the basic ways in which humans reason.

Judea Pearl

God never deals in counterfactual logic, but Jesus does.

Where is the first instance of counterfactual logic being used in the Bible?

Abraham uses counterfactual logic when asking God about under what circumstances Sodom and Gomorrah would be spared.

Note: The English term "sodomy" comes from the name of the city, "Sodom".

Genesis 18:23

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KJV: And Abraham drew near, and said, Wilt thou also destroy the righteous with the wicked?

Hebrew: ויגש אברהם ויאמר האף תספה צדיק עם רשע׃

Greek: και εγγισας αβρααμ ειπεν μη συναπολεσης δικαιον μετα ασεβους και εσται ο δικαιος ως ο ασεβης

Genesis 18:24

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KJV: Peradventure there be fifty righteous within the city: wilt thou also destroy and not spare the place for the fifty righteous that are therein?

Hebrew: אולי יש חמשים צדיקם בתוך העיר האף תספה ולא תשא למקום למען חמשים הצדיקם אשר בקרבה׃

Genesis 18:25

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KJV: That be far from thee to do after this manner, to slay the righteous with the wicked: and that the righteous should be as the wicked, that be far from thee: Shall not the Judge of all the earth do right?

Hebrew: חללה לך מעשת כדבר הזה להמית צדיק עם רשע והיה כצדיק כרשע חללה לך השפט כל הארץ לא יעשה משפט׃

Greek: μηδαμως συ ποιησεις ως το ρημα τουτο του αποκτειναι δικαιον μετα ασεβους και εσται ο δικαιος ως ο ασεβης μηδαμως ο κρινων πασαν την γην ου ποιησεις κρισιν

Genesis 18:26

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KJV: And the LORD said, If I find in Sodom fifty righteous within the city, then I will spare all the place for their sakes.

Hebrew: ויאמר יהוה אם אמצא בסדם חמשים צדיקם בתוך העיר ונשאתי לכל המקום בעבורם׃

Greek: ειπεν δε κυριος εαν ευρω εν σοδομοις πεντηκοντα δικαιους εν τη πολει αφησω παντα τον τοπον δι αυτους

Abraham continues to reduce the number. Apparently, there were not many righteous in Sodom and Gomorrah.

Peter uses counterfactual logic in two successive verses in 2 Peter.

2 Peter 2:20

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2 Peter 2:21

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KJV: For it had been better for them not to have known the way of righteousness, than, after they have known it, to turn from the holy commandment delivered unto them.

Greek: κρειττον γαρ ην αυτοις μη επεγνωκεναι την οδον της δικαιοσυνης η επιγνουσιν επιστρεψαι υποστρεψαι εκ της παραδοθεισης αυτοις αγιας εντολης

Jesus, in his humanity, uses counterfactual logic many times in interacting with others.

What other examples of counterfactual logic can you find used in the Bible?

Matthew 18:6

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KJV: But whoso shall offend one of these little ones which believe in me, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and that he were drowned in the depth of the sea.

Greek: ος δ αν σκανδαλιση ενα των μικρων τουτων των πιστευοντων εις εμε συμφερει αυτω ινα κρεμασθη μυλος ονικος επι περι τον τραχηλον αυτου και καταποντισθη εν τω πελαγει της θαλασσης

Latin: qui autem scandalizaverit unum de pusillis istis qui in me credunt expedit ei ut suspendatur mola asinaria in collo eius et demergatur in profundum maris

Wycliffe: But who so sclaundrith oon of these smale, that bileuen in me, it spedith to hym that a mylnstoon`of assis be hangid in his necke, and he be drenchid in the depnesse of the see.

In Matthew 18:6, the KJV (King James Version) translates as "depth of the sea" what the Greek has as "sea of the sea".

More: Russian and Greek roots of the term Gulag Archipelago

Here are the corresponding verses in Mark and Luke which have just "sea", not "depth of the sea".

What special meaning, other than emphasis, might have been expressed in Matthew 18:6?

Mark 9:42

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KJV: And whosoever shall offend one of these little ones that believe in me, it is better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and he were cast into the sea.

Greek: και ος αν σκανδαλιση ενα των μικρων τουτων των πιστευοντων εις εμε καλον εστιν αυτω μαλλον ει περικειται λιθος μυλικος μυλος ονικος περι τον τραχηλον αυτου και βεβληται εις την θαλασσαν

Luke 17:2

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KJV: It were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and he cast into the sea, than that he should offend one of these little ones.

Greek: λυσιτελει αυτω ει μυλος ονικος λιθος μυλικος περικειται περι τον τραχηλον αυτου και ερριπται εις την θαλασσαν η ινα σκανδαλιση ενα των μικρων τουτων ενα

Matthew 26:24

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KJV: The Son of man goeth as it is written of him: but woe unto that man by whom the Son of man is betrayed! it had been good for that man if he had not been born.

Greek: ο μεν υιος του ανθρωπου υπαγει καθως γεγραπται περι αυτου ουαι δε τω ανθρωπω εκεινω δι ου ο υιος του ανθρωπου παραδιδοται καλον ην αυτω ει ουκ εγεννηθη ο ανθρωπος εκεινος