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Pascal's wager
1. Blaise Pascal
Blaise Pascal (French mathematician, physicist, inventor, philosopher and theologian) was a French mathematician, physicist, inventor, philosopher and theologian. He is credited with the following inventions/discoveries.
digital calculator, the Pascaline
Probability, in conjunction with the analysis of gambling problems.
Pascal's triangle (i.e., foundation of the coefficients of the binomial distribution).
cycloid, a curve traced out by a point on the edge of a rolling wheel.
2. Pascal's wager
Pascal's wager claims to prove that belief in God is rational goes something like the following.
If you believe, and God exists, you have a lot to gain (i.e., heaven). But, if you disbelieve, and God exists, you have a lot to lose (i.e., hell).
3. Decision tree
A decision tree for Pascal's wager might be drawn as follows.
For more on decision trees, see
Decision trees
.
Pascal's wager follows standard decision theory, and can be interpreted as such.
4. Google searches
The consequences and implications are such that an Internet search on the topic "
Pascal's wager" on Google resulted in the following.
A search on 2004-04-27 resulted in 14,400 hits.
A search on 2019-05-24 resulted in 292,000 hits.
It is interesting to look at some of these sites to see the reasoning that can be used to justify one's own bias.
5. Common approach
Many sites take the general approach that God cannot or does not exist, therefore, since the a priori probability that God exists is 0.0, there is nothing to be gained from "Accepting God".
In general, whenever a straightforward topic such as a standard decision tree diagram arouses such passionate reasoning and argument against the standard interpretation of the diagram, then there might be something there worth investigating in more detail.
6. Controversial issues
Any controversial issue, such as Pascal's wager, is a good source of opposing viewpoints where both sides claim to be using rational logic in proving their point of view.
You can learn a lot by studying both sides of an argument and coming to your own conclusions.
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